Fox wasn’t alone in showing Mr. Biden ahead. Perhaps if you’re legitimately worried about a state, and want to make sure people take it seriously. The 2020 Biden vs. Trump electoral map based on public opinion polling. The poll partly coincided with Mr. Trump’s announcement that he would make a new Supreme Court nomination to fill the vacancy created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, but it was not clear from the survey whether voters had a particularly strong reaction to that possibility. Seventy percent of Biden voters say the coronavirus is critically important vs. 24% of Trump voters. At times, these polls have suggested that Joe Biden is faring extremely well. Biden is getting 49% of white likely voters compared to 48% for Trump. It’s hard to say it’s an outlier without any other polls for comparison. One of those voters is Casey Andre-Lindsay, 41, of Roswell, who said she planned to vote for Mr. Biden. And when it comes to these top issues, nearly all Trump and Biden supporters think their man is the right one for the job. There has been no shortage of good news for Mr. Biden in the Upper Midwest, and this weekend was no exception. Here's the truth, Most memorable moments from past presidential debates, Biden reacts to Trump's nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, Pelosi: Our concern in the Supreme Court is the Affordable Care Act, GOP senator: We'll have a peaceful transfer in January 2025, Breaking down absentee ballots and when they are counted, Trump nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court, Trump campaign falsely accuses Biden of teleprompter use, How Trump laid groundwork for election result mayhem, HHS secretary spotted without mask at Rose Garden event, Trump's border wall vs Biden's focus on asylum, State election official sounds alarm over 'secrecy envelope', Bloomberg pouring big money into major battleground state, his choice of California Sen. Kamala Harris, Here are the words defining the 2020 presidential campaign. Just 6% of voters were persuadable in the survey, measured as those who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently. Along with the wide lead for Democrats in Maine, Quinnipiac found a tied race in the South Carolina Senate race. These polls share something important: They show tied races in states that Mr. Trump won fairly comfortably in 2016 (by nine in Iowa and by five in Georgia). Of course, the polls could be more accurate, less accurate or exactly the same as they were the last two times. If voters were afraid to divulge their support for the president, the theory goes, perhaps Mr. Trump would have more support online, where supporters wouldn’t have to express their views to a person on the phone. But unrest in Kenosha didn’t lead to a change in the state of the race in Wisconsin, and that might say a lot about the national political environment. He has probably won Arizona if he’s won Texas; he has probably won Wisconsin if he’s won Iowa; he has probably won North Carolina if he’s won Georgia. Joe Biden and Donald Trump need 270 electoral votes to reach the White House. But it’s also possible that it reflects a real split, perhaps driven by demographics: Most of the great results for Mr. Biden in recent state polls have come in overwhelmingly white states, and there are plenty of national (and state) poll results suggesting that Mr. Biden is running ahead of Mrs. Clinton among white voters but faring worse among nonwhite voters. Status of the polls at the end of the day: Waiting to see how Supreme Court politics will reshape the race. Sometimes the polls are good for Mr. Biden. In the battleground states, though, voters' views on the two candidates are almost even: 52% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, 54% of Trump. Trump's strengths are with white evangelicals; whites without a degree, especially white men without one; and those who live in rural areas or small towns. But it turns out that the U.S.C. The gender gap is pronounced even in Iowa, where both Senate candidates are women. Try building your own coalition of battleground states to see potential outcomes. The good part for Mr. Biden is simple: On Thursday, he led in every poll of North Carolina, Florida and Arizona — five polls in all. Keep an eye out for it. Florida Atlantic University showed a tied race in Florida, though the firm doesn’t have much of a track record and its methodology is a mixed bag. Notably, like in August's survey, Biden is again recording record support with white voters for a Democratic presidential candidate. Mr. Trump’s large advantage among men in Texas is enough to give him a small advantage there, 46 percent to 43 percent. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. But the polls were almost exactly in line with the average in the most important battleground states, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. Here’s one that might surprise you: Four years ago, Mrs. Clinton led by just 1.2 points in national polling heading into the first debate, according to FiveThirtyEight. In this case, if the pollster simply asks whether the respondent agrees that the winner of the election should replace Justice Ginsburg, most voters might say “yes.” But if you give the same respondents a second option — whether President Trump should choose the nominee — you can bet that plenty of Trump supporters would take the option, even though they might have agreed, if asked the other question, that the winner should decide. If it joins the club of high-quality pollsters showing at least a five- or six-point lead for Mr. Biden, that would yield about as clear of a picture as you’re going to get in a battleground state so far from an election. An even race in Iowa and Georgia. Biden also leads with likely voters who are 65 and older, 51% to 47%, a reversal from 2016 when Trump won them, 52%-45%, according to exit polls. Mr. Trump’s vulnerability even in conservative-leaning states underscores just how precarious his political position is, less than six weeks before Election Day. Today’s polls were no exception. And more generally, Biden is more often seen as having "a clear plan for solving the country's problems" (49% choose Biden to 43% Trump) and as better able to "manage the government effectively" (52% Biden to 44% Trump). As you can see, Mr. Biden could easily win these states. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters from Sept. 16 to Sept. 22. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 523 likely voters in Georgia from Sept. 16 to Sept. 22. The Texas Senate race appears to be the best bet for Republicans among the three states. Joe Biden’s eight-point lead nationally is propelled by a wide advantage among women and voters of color. How is it possible for the race to teeter on the edge between a landslide and a close contest? Global Strategy Group/GBAO/Navigator Research, Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. “It’s going to take a decade to fix the things that he is trying to dismantle,” Ms. Andre-Lindsay said of Mr. Trump. It still lands the President near the bottom of a list of historical approval ratings for presidents seeking reelection just ahead of their nominating conventions. But if the Data for Progress results are viewed through the lens of Mr. Biden’s quest for one last state with a comfortable lead, then none of the results are particularly good for him. The top Democratic vote-getter is the Rev. With Mr. Biden eyeing just one more state with a comfortable edge, a commanding Biden lead in Arizona would have significant consequences for the electoral map. That three-point difference is a measurement of the president’s relative edge in the Electoral College, and that’s about what our poll averages say today. Mary McKinney, 48, of St. Charles, Iowa, said she supported Mr. Trump because of his plain-spoken manner but felt the Supreme Court process was moving “a little fast,” adding that she would not support efforts to outlaw abortion. There weren’t many polls today, which is expected. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Another good day for Biden in Wisconsin. The same can be said of today’s polls. Most say she is qualified to be president should that be necessary (57%). At least in this case, that may be closer to the truth: Naming the minor-party candidates can often inflate their support, but it’s not a true one-on-one race either. State of the race at the end of the day: Mr. Biden’s leading in major battlegrounds, and even in a few states that Mr. Trump won handily four years ago. So far, we’ve mainly focused on the states likely to decide the race. The survey also includes an oversample of residents of 15 battleground states for a total subsample of 636 adults and 569 registered voters from those states. ABC/Washington Post had a good set of numbers for Democrats on the coming Supreme Court battle, suggesting that more people trusted Mr. Biden to choose a Supreme Court justice, or would prefer that the winner of the election get to choose. A split between state and national polls? The state is traditionally highly competitive, but it swung so hard to Mr. Trump in 2016 that few would have put it toward center of the electoral map. The electoral map - and history - make this a must-win for Trump: No Republican has been elected president without winning the Buckeye State, The seat will be vacant from the start of the next Congress until after a February 9 special election, Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight, With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground, This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin. Maybe the most noteworthy one was an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the first live-interview, education-weighted national survey in a while. Two polls, two substantial Biden leads. As a group, those voters lean Republican. Biden has won them back, not so much because he isn’t Trump but because he isn’t Clinton. It turned the poll’s potential biggest advantage — the ability to track change over time — into a liability. The first polling tidbits after the death of Justice Ginsburg. One note of caution: CNN/SSRS polls have tended to tilt to the left compared with the average of polls so far this cycle, as well as in 2018. Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more: Electoral votes if polling leads translate perfectly to results (they won’t): Electoral votes if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016†: Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 420 likely voters from Sept. 25-27, 2020. A state-national gap? A closer look at polls of Florida and Wisconsin. But the other two-thirds are heavily Democratic and live across the state. In Iowa, Joe Biden seems to be securing large, broad gains among white voters. Unlike in Iowa, demographic changes are also on Mr. Biden’s side. Biden leads by 9 points against President Trump, who continues to face an uphill reelection battle. Sometimes they’re good for the president. Which means if you’re seeing a partisan poll released in the wild, it’s because someone wanted you to see it. As a result, U.S.C.’s results oscillated between a wide Biden lead and a tighter race, depending on whether the last week of interviews was the good or bad week for Mr. Biden. Today was a pretty typical day of polling for this point in the race. They were awfully good for Mr. Biden. Almost all the national polls showed him ahead by at least seven points. The coronavirus pandemic, economic distress and racial justice protests have done little to reshape a presidential campaign that polls show has been remarkably stable. Biden continues run of strong state polls. On balance, that’s better for Mr. Biden than both the trend line and the average. No Democratic presidential candidate has earned that much support with white voters in the past five decades. Isabella Grullón Paz contributed reporting. Outlying results are a common — and expected — part of polling, even from the best pollsters. State of the race at the end of the day: It still seems like a comfortable Biden lead. It’s great news for Mr. Biden, but it’s worth taking these results with a grain of salt. One twist: The ABC/Post poll released two sets of results for the presidential race. That’s exactly what we got: The poll showed Mr. Biden up by six points among likely voters in Wisconsin. Ohio, really? That said, you could cut Mr. Biden’s lead in half and it would still be a strong result for Democrats. Together, winning those states would probably put Mr. Biden well over 300 electoral votes. A landslide and a close race are both easy to imagine. From there, any other flipped battleground state would get him over the top. Our poll averages include all polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. Many pollsters didn’t weight by education in 2016, and it’s one of the major reasons the state polls were biased toward Hillary Clinton. Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. And as with The Times surveys of other competitive states from earlier this month, voters expressed little confidence in Mr. Trump’s ability to heal the country. Question wording. Polls show Biden highly competitive in red states. Best for last: On Friday, New NYT/Siena College polls in Maine, Arizona and North Carolina My colleagues Alexander Burns and Matt Stevens will have the story, with some key Senate results, posting first thing in the morning. An even bigger eye-popper in Maine Quinnipiac released a poll of Maine with incredibly strong results for Democrats: a 21-point lead for Mr. Biden in a state Mrs. Clinton won by only three points in 2016, and a 12-point lead for the Democrat Sara Gideon in a hotly contested race against the incumbent Republican senator, Susan Collins. They’re all fairly close, and Mr. Biden’s worst result — trailing by one in Arizona — comes in the state where it seemed most likely that Mr. Biden had a good shot of claiming some security. College graduates are likelier to take political surveys, but they are also far likelier to oppose Mr. Trump. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including whether a poll represents likely voters, whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted, and whether a pollster has leaned toward one candidate in a state or nationwide. In this case, it’s not a particularly great result for Mr. Biden. When third-party candidates are included, it remains about the same. Think twice about that Biden lead in North Carolina Today there was a Suffolk University poll showing Mr. Biden up by four points in North Carolina, which would be a strong showing in a state where our averages suggest a dead heat. If no candidate receives more than 50%, the top two will advance to a runoff. In 2016, it was Wisconsin: If Hillary Clinton had won every state where she was stronger than Wisconsin (the states she carried, plus Pennsylvania and Michigan), then it all would have come down to Wisconsin, the tipping point. A Democratic poll of Nevada that’s not so great for Biden? On the flip side, 2% of Trump voters say they would prefer Biden on the economy, and only 4% choose him on the coronavirus outbreak. They found the same result: a tie. But if you took all the polls together Thursday, you wound up in about the same spot you started at the beginning of the day, though Fox News did try to shake things up at the very end. And the poll showed Mr. Biden up five points in Ohio, a state Mr. Trump carried by eight points in 2016. He makes Richard Nixon look like a choir boy.”. The new results are good news for Joe Biden. Joe Biden has made significant gains in states Donald Trump won handily in 2016. She wound up winning the national vote by 2.1 points — the pre-debate polling was even closer to the election result than the (already fairly accurate) final national poll numbers. All Rights Reserved. It remains crucial to Mr. Trump’s re-election hopes, and many thought Wisconsin would be a real challenge for Mr. Biden. He’s up four points in Nevada, a state Mrs. Clinton won in 2016, and it comes just after a Fox News poll showed Mr. Biden up by double digits there. Strong Democratic results in the Senate. To feel comfortable, Mr. Biden has one goal: claim a solid lead in just one more state. He leads President Trump by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters in the first nonpartisan survey of the district so far this year, according to FiveThirtyEight. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters before boarding his plane in Florida on Tuesday. But until Mr. Biden claims a more consistent and wider lead in a state like Pennsylvania — more like his seven-point lead nationwide — Mr. Trump will remain more competitive than you might guess from the steady stream of poll results hinting at a possible blowout. Nearly 6 in 10 say they support the candidate they do because of their view of Trump (29% say their Biden vote is more to oppose Trump, 30% say they are casting a Trump vote in support of him), while only 32% say Biden is the deciding factor (19% are voting in favor of Biden, 13% casting a ballot to oppose him). He said he had reservations about Mr. Biden but preferred his “honesty and integrity” to the president’s character. Reflecting the conservative tilt of the states polled, Mr. Trump and his party are in better shape than in most of the others recently polled by The Times, and he may ultimately carry all of them. tracking. So if pollsters don’t do anything to make sure they properly represent people without a college degree, they’ll have results that are too good for Democrats. Today, it’s the opposite, and that makes it a fine day to roll out a new chart of the difference between our poll average nationwide and in the so-called tipping-point state: What’s the tipping-point state? Jeff Secora of Mason City, Iowa, is the kind of voter Mr. Biden will have to keep in his camp in order to carry the state. The district is traditionally Republican, but Mr. Trump carried it by only two percentage points in 2016. In the middle is an eight-point lead for Mr. Biden from NPR/Marist. The Senate races in the three states also highlight the same forces that are propelling Mr. Biden’s candidacy. David Perdue is currently winning 41 percent, while his Democratic rival, Jon Ossoff, is taking 38 percent. Same idea.). Search our Site: Search for Your Local Elected Officials: News President (current) 2020 Electoral College Map 2020 Election Calendar Latest Presidential Election Polls 2020 Polling Averages by State Pundit Forecasts 2020 Simulation … Over the last few weeks, Joe Biden has often seemed to do well in the state polls but not necessarily in the national polls. We often focus on the battleground states that decided the last election and seem likeliest to decide the next one. Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%. hide caption. But what’s behind these shifts is quite different. A poll that had seemed to show a shifting race really didn’t show much change at all. Today, U.S.C. State of the race at the end of the day A clear Biden advantage, but still searching for a comfortable lead in the 270th electoral vote. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. My colleagues Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns have the story. (You may recall an eyepopper in the other direction from the ABC/Post poll last week, showing Mr. Biden with a 16-point lead in Minnesota. The poll suggests that supporters of the two candidates are living in alternate universes when it comes to the issues that matter to their vote. But there’s really just no serious evidence to support the idea that these voters exist in meaningful numbers, and there was no such evidence in 2016, either. More also say Biden will unite the country and not divide it (55% Biden to 35% Trump). Trump’s best polls of the cycle? If this recent difference persists, we’ll really dive in. There has been no shortage of articles about the possibility that President Trump’s supporters are part of a silent majority that, as a group, do not reveal their true vote intention to pollsters. Taken in isolation, the national polls we do have over the last week suggest that the race is stable or even moving a bit toward the president, who now trails by just six points in our average. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. In fact, they’re even closer than Florida or Pennsylvania — so close that a Biden landslide is just as real a possibility as a Trump victory. We’ll have more to say about our specific plans soon. A significant danger looming for Texas Republicans is that Mr. Trump’s hard-line immigration policies are increasingly out of step with where the state is today, and where it is heading. More often than not, confusion follows. A good day for Biden everywhere else. Here’s a different way to think about it: If Mr. Biden outperformed today’s polls by just two points, he would be declared the winner early on election night. Just 20 percent of Texans over all opposed such a process. The 30% who call her selection excellent outpaces the share who said so in CNN polling on John Edwards in 2004, Biden in 2008, Joe Lieberman in 2000 or Tim Kaine in 2016. Biden’s national lead is steady, but state polls show him overperforming in states Trump carried handily and underperforming in purple states. Today, a CNN/SSRS poll added to the consensus by showing Mr. Biden up by 10 points, one of his largest leads there this cycle. Safe is 15% or higher. So who cares about the national polls? In Georgia, there’s a shift among college-educated white voters, particularly in the well-educated suburbs of Atlanta. But that final piece — probably Pennsylvania, Florida or Arizona — hasn’t always given Mr. Biden a consistent or comfortable lead. Sixteen percent of Georgia voters said they were undecided, including a significant number of African-Americans, who historically side overwhelmingly with Democrats. Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue both face challenging elections in November. An early Supreme Court tidbit. The polls have been wrong before, and they’ll be wrong again.But despite their flaws, polls remain the best way to measure attitudes across a huge and diverse country. Mr. Trump is ahead with men by a similar margin of 11 percentage points. The Texas result (Trump only +1) again raises the possibility that Mr. Biden could win in a landslide with more than 400 electoral votes. Overall, Biden holds the edge on a range of positive traits often seen as valuable in a run for the White House. There aren’t a ton of polls in these states, so it’s possible that Mr. Biden has a wider lead than we think. “I don’t like abortion, but I don’t like a woman being forced to carry a baby due to a traumatic incident, so I guess I’m kind of neutral on that,” said Ms. McKinney, who works at home as a foster parent. Another possibility is that Mr. Biden has actually lost a bit of ground nationally while holding his own or is even gaining in the battleground states. The problem is simple. The overwhelming majority of voters — about nine in every 10 in all three states — say they have definitely made up their minds about whom to vote for, leaving relatively little room for late developments to shift the overarching shape of the race. That’s certainly plausible, especially since Mr. Biden has tended to make his largest gains among white voters, who are disproportionately overrepresented in the battleground states, while struggling to match Mrs. Clinton’s numbers among nonwhite voters. Copy Code. This is around the time when convention bounces start to diminish. It will be a while until we have a good understanding of public opinion in the aftermath of the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. A yawning gender gap in Georgia, Iowa and Texas is working in Mr. Biden’s favor, with the former vice president making inroads into conservative territory with strong support from women. Democrats are pushing Biden. Today’s polls kept them in play. Compared with other recent Democratic running mates, Harris fares well. It’s probably a noisy, outlying result. In Iowa, where Mr. Biden is ahead of Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 42 percent, he is up among women by 14 percentage points. But if he’s up by only three points in the state, as today’s polls might suggest, maybe Pennsylvania — where there has been less polling recently — might be the better option for Mr. Biden to find his 270th electoral vote. On Tuesday, I said that we’d have an unusually clear picture of the race in Wisconsin if the ABC News/Washington Post poll Wednesday found Joe Biden ahead by at least five points. It’s a panel survey, which means respondents are contacted repeatedly. In Georgia, where there are two Senate races on the ballot, Republicans appear better positioned but are still facing highly competitive campaigns. And OH Predictive Insights found the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly up by 10 points in his Arizona Senate race. We’ll get a lot more data this weekend, including a new Times/Siena national poll, the rest of the ABC/Washington Post poll, and almost certainly more. And until that’s true, the president’s path to re-election will be a bit easier than the national polls suggest. But Mr. Biden holds just under a five-point lead in Pennsylvania and a two-point lead in Florida, according to our averages, even as he fights to a draw in places where Democrats haven’t won in decades. The best news for Biden in a while in Florida. Most polls asking both versions of the question haven’t shown anywhere near so large a gap, but Mr. Biden has tended to do about a point worse when the minor-party candidates are listed. State of the race at the end of the day Mr. Biden ends the week with a clear advantage in the battlegrounds, but still some question marks about whether or how things are shifting nationally. Analysis of the day in polls, from now until Election Day. And the President has boosted his backing among conservatives from 76% to 85%. That’s part of why the average of all polls is helpful. But if you look at the national releases, you see stability, or even a bit of tightening. On Tuesday, we’ll get an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of Georgia. In Georgia, Mr. Biden’s lead with women essentially matched Mrs. Clinton’s final advantage in the 2016 race. A poll from Monmouth University showed Mr. Biden up four percentage points among likely voters on average, his best result from a nonpartisan, live interview pollster there in several weeks. Share or Embed your Map: Select 'Share Map' button above. That latter result is probably closer to two or three points because it’s a poll of registered voters, rather than of likely voters. A word of caution: Quinnipiac has leaned quite a bit to the left in this cycle; I recommend nudging these to the right a few points in your head before taking them to the bank.